In 2004, I bet a friend $100 that the U.S. men's national team would never win the World Cup in our lifetimes. If my friend won he would get the cash, and if I won...well, I'd be dead.
Until recently, the conventional wisdom suggested that I had made a safe bet, but the arguments against soccer's potential popularity in the U.S. are beginning to sound less persuasive. In their book Soccernomics, sports economist Stefan Szymanski and soccer writer Simon Kuper argue that American soccer dominance is inevitable given our population and per-capita income. In light of this data, I am starting to doubt that I will be pushing up daisies before our boys bring home the gold statue.
We have often been athletic trend-setters thanks to our vast resources and large talent pool, but is world soccer dominance really in our future? The U.S. is at the forefront of sports science and sports medicine research--European clubs send their players to our trainers and doctors. In true American fashion, foreign coaching talent is being recruited to drive growth and we now have more youngsters playing Soccer than any other sport in the United States; in fact, we have one of the highest levels of youth soccer participation in the world.
In the professional sphere, MLS is growing in popularity and after years of austerity looks stable enough to surpass the 16-year benchmark set by its predecessor the NASL. The "designated player" rule, the building of soccer-specific stadiums and expansion teams have all signaled that MLS is planning for aggressive growth. Yet while soccer has begun to stake its claim within the American sports culture, our men's national team still does not stack up. There is something standing in the way of talent development in the U.S. and that something is Big Business FC.
Big Business FC is your local soccer club; it has a name that pays homage to the great clubs of the world, something like "Real Rancho Cucamonga." The club has a board of directors, hundreds of eager parents willing to pay top-dollar for their kids to play forward--even if they're overweight and can't run--and it's ruining youth development in the United States. Often, it is not so much the club that is at odds with player development as the parents who pay for their kids to play for the club.
Soccer clubs started with a decent enough premise: an environment in which gifted youth could develop their talent throughout the year. Somewhere along the way the evil seeds of money, greed and politics supplanted this premise. At youth clubs playing time is not necessarily awarded on the merit of a child's ability (say positional awareness, technique or vision) but on how much their parents have shelled out for them to be there. Club soccer today is not as much a meritocracy as it is an aristocracy. Sadly, this corrosive system has contributed to the stagnation of our national team by feeding our youth development program for years.
Practicing is not the main goal for many clubs, winning is, thus player development goes largely ignored. A club team can play more games in a weekend tournament than it has practice sessions in a whole week. There are clubs that hire respected coaches who understand the importance of training over winning at the youth level, but parents want to see immediate results for their money. How then, can the focus of a club be development when coaches and trainers have to operate in such a politically-charged environment?
The authors of Soccernomics state that in addition to population and per-capita income there is a third factor that determines a country's soccer potential: soccer knowledge. Soccer knowledge is gained by studying European training methods and a pass-centric playing style. The U.S. has already begun to adopt many of these methods and is trying to implement European tactics, but it has largely ignored the building-block of the European game: academies.
U.S. soccer has been making great strides over the last decade. USSF president Sunil Gulati and his underlings realize that the youth system has to change; entrusting local clubs to feed our Olympic Development Program is not enough. The revamped U.S. Development Academy, in following the European model, depends on MLS clubs to develop talent through their academies, thereby moving youth soccer development in the right direction.
I used to think that MLS was an afterthought, that if the U.S. was ever going to produce world-class players they would have to go abroad at an early age. However, if we are to produce a team of world-beaters that can compete with Brazil, Spain, Ghana et al., we cannot entrust the development of our players to other countries, it simply isn't feasible. We need stronger MLS academies to begin nurturing players in a training-intensive setting that is paid for by the team. It would be great to see an extensive academy system spread across MLS because I want to lose that bet I made seven years ago.